中國7月份CPI和PPI雙雙同比下降

　　Chinese prices continued to fall in July from a year earlier, reducing the likelihood that Beijing will soon adjust its policy of boosting growth with easy credit and surging infrastructure spending. 

　　7月份中國物價繼續同比下跌，這使得中國政府很快進行政策調整的可能性有所下降。目前中國正憑借寬松的信貸和激增的基礎設施支出來推動經濟增長。

　　According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday, China's consumer price index fell 1.8 per cent while the producer price index was down 8.2 per cent from a year earlier, despite a flood of bank lending and investment in recent months.

　　根據國家統計局(NBS)周二公布的數據，盡管近幾個月銀行貸款和投資激增，但中國7月居民消費價格(CPI)和工業品出廠價格指數(PPI)仍分別同比下降1.8%和8.2%。

　　Fixed asset investment rose 32.9 per cent from a year earlier in July while industrial output expanded by 10.8 per cent, the fastest rate in nine months. The figures provided further evidence of recovery in China's economy, which has come largely as a result of government investment and state-directed lending that saw new bank loans triple in the first half from the same period last year.

　　今年7月，中國固定資產投資同比增長32.9%。工業增加值同比增長10.8%，為9個月以來的最高增速。這些數據為中國經濟復蘇提供了進一步的證據，復蘇主要是政府投資和政府指導下放貸的結果。今年上半年，中國新增貸款規模為去年同期的3倍。

　　Meanwhile, China's exports and imports continued to decline in July from a year earlier, underscoring the need for the government to maintain its domestic investment-led stimulus.

　　與此同時，中國7月進出口繼續同比下滑，這突顯出政府繼續保持其國內由投資拉動的刺激舉措的必要性。

　　Exports were down 23 per cent from a year earlier, while imports fell 14.9 per cent but both were up around 10 per cent month-on-month from June, continuing a sequential rebound that began in April.

　　中國7月進出口分別較去年同期下降14.9%和23%，但與6月相比均增長10%左右，持續了從4月份開始的逐月反彈趨勢。

　　While Beijing is worried about asset price inflation in the real estate and stock markets, the negative year-on-year CPI and PPI readings provide the government with breathing room to maintain its “moderately loose” monetary policy, according to economists.

　　經濟學家表示，在中國政府擔憂房地產及股市資產價格上漲之際，CPI和PPI數據同比下跌，為政府繼續保持其“適度寬松”的貨幣政策提供了喘息之機。

　　“People will pay most attention to the inflation figures to see whether the government is likely to tighten its monetary policy,” according to Vincent Chan, an economist at Credit Suisse in Hong Kong. “These latest figures mean there will be no near-term change in the government's monetary policy.”

　　瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)駐香港的經濟學家陳昌華(Vincent Chan)表示：“人們最關注的將是通脹數據，以此判斷（中國）政府是否可能收緊貨幣政策。這些最新數據表明，政府的貨幣政策在短期內不會變化。”

　　Senior leaders have repeatedly emphasized their commitment to the current loose monetary conditions in recent weeks but the central bank and banking regulators have also ordered banks to rein in new lendingand reduce exposure to potential bad loans.

　　近幾周來，中國高層領導人反復強調了維持當前寬松貨幣環境的決心，但央行和銀行業監管機構同時也命令各銀行控制新的放貸行為，降低潛在壞賬的風險。

　　In a recent report, China's central bank forecast CPI would bottom out at the end of the fourth quarter and while prices fell year-on-year, CPI was flat in July from a month earlier, while PPI rose 1 per cent from the previous month.

　　中國央行在最近一份報告中預測，CPI將在第四季度末見底。盡管7月份物價同比有所下降，但CPI與上月持平，而PPI環比增長1%。

　　China's rampant manufacturing overcapacity raised serious worries earlier this year over the potential for deflation but that fear has receded amid strong domestic demand, a flood of liquidity and rising global commodity prices.

　　今年早些時候，中國制造業產能嚴重過剩，引發了人們對于有可能出現通縮局面的深切憂慮。但由于強勁的國內需求、充沛的流動性，加之全球大宗商品價格日益上漲，上述擔憂已逐漸消退。

　　According to official data, retail sales of consumer goods rose 5.2 per cent in July from a year earlier, a healthy pace compared to most other economies but still 8.1 percentage point lower than the year-on-year growth in July last year.

　　官方數據顯示，7月份消費品零售總額同比增長15.2%，與其它多數經濟體相比，這一增幅都相當可觀，但仍較去年同期的增幅低8.1個百分點。